I normally quite like Scott Alexander. Like me, I suspect he’s never had more of a creative peak or a vulnerable period than early 2016. I also suspect I would remind him of his patients. I’m fun that way.
This is why it amazes me…worries me, even, when I come down from a manic phase and find the following in my Reddit inbox. Is that Scott? Has he been deleted and replaced with a Shur Fine Brand copy by the acausal robot God? Why does everyone gotta pick on me for saying the most innocuous shit? Oh well, never mind. I’m already enjoying Unsong and really have no wish to alienate Scott, but a challenge is a challenge and I’m just manic enough to take it seriously. Let it here be recorded that I set the following terms and Scott Alexander is free to accept them and free to live with the consequences if he doesn’t. What consequences, Baby Bear? No one reads your dumb blog anyway! Oh, if Scott doesn’t at least comment all “gr8 b8 m8 I mstrb8d but you b8d I r8 8/8” or something, they will…they will. Mwa ha ha. Hahaha. ha. 🐻
So here’s the deal. I am poor as shit and looking for a way out. I, for many reasons which Scott Alexander has blogged about at length, cannot afford a college education, much less dental to repair the damage done by the Concerta my shrink prescribed me. Stacking the deck in his favor financially may be how he does it, but it isn’t how I do it. Poor though I may be, crazy, lacking in proper seafood and cheeseburger habits, I do maximize my profits. So. The $20 I was going to do laundry with versus his $100. I predict Donald Trump becomes the next president. I also am poly. Polygamous, in fact, Mormon. I’ve got my eye on a girl right now. I think by next year I’ll be dating, but not sealed to, my second wife. If either of these comes true, I get $100. If they both come true, I get $200. There is no way my entire personal lens and the convictions and willpower they’re attached to can be that useful compared to a sane dude in late med school’s. So the payoff should be commensurate. If Scott is right, his model is better than I thought, and I pay out $20 to his PayPal. I don’t expect him to pay anything in return.
Hell, I don’t expect him to even reply here. But he did choose to get all huffy over like…really nothing at all, and it is unfortunately only the current year. So he really has nothing to lose by taking this bet, except a model that no longer serves him. If I’m wrong, I gain an incredible amount of insight into my own thought processes, and pay bowling money for it. Which seems like a real win. But either way, it’ll be interesting. And I was planning to make a prediction list anyway, so I’ll work on that in the meantime.
Scott: looking forward to your reply.